Innocent Criminal

A case of double talk

2006-08-23T22:19:00.000+02:00

A saying goes, “You don’t need to be crazy to work here, but it helps!” and this perfectly applies to people who might be attempting to analyze the latest statements coming out of the Middle East.

Shortly after the cease fire in Lebanon took effect the Syrian President came out with a fiery speech essentially calling the leaders and government of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon’s March 14 alliance “half men” who held “half positions”. This was a bombshell in every sense of the word since no Syrian leader has ever come out punching that many Arab “brothers” at one time. This strategy, or so it seemed at the time, was to win the hearts of the Arab streets who were sick and tired of their incompetent and impotent leaders sitting idle while Lebanon is being bombed to the stone age. And possible veiled muscle flexing by advocating civil unrest in the mentioned countries. While most, even critics of the president, might have agreed with his actual comments. The move seemed risky to many since isolating Syria further did not seem like the prudent thing to do. Some suggested that the move was a firm stand against the US agenda and in support of HA. While that’s partly true I believe there were two main points to underline here.

First, criticizing Lebanese and regional leaders on behalf of Nasrallah as to give the latter the chance to use diplomacy later. One can say it was a version of the good-cup/bad-cop routine. We saw their March 14 counter-parts pull the same trick the next day with Hariri criticizing Assad and leaving the more sensitive criticism of Nasrallah to the more outspoken Jumblatt.

Second, I believe this was a public show of frustration by the president toward the regional/international powers for leaving Damascus high and dry without some sort of a deal as was expected (on a regional level at the very least).
But just a person’s temper got the better of him and later realized his/her actions were counter-productive. The Syrian government sent out these mending statements in the past few days. Obviously it’s too late.

Then we saw an even more extreme example coming out of Tel-Aviv the last few days. First there were reports of possible resumption of peace talks with Syria. And even the appointment of a Project Manager for the task. But a couple of days later we heard the same voices indicating the opposite. Can you spell... schizophrenia???

189 vs. 3

2006-07-21T13:00:00.000+02:00

Above is the cover of "The Independent". It speaks volume of who runs Middle East policy. 1 super power, 1 regional super power and 1 bitch (hint: the bitch is not the US or Israel ;)). Does anyone see the humor in the fact that this battle is one-sided in favor of the 3?

The waiting game

2006-07-20T00:05:00.000+02:00

First I should mention that the BBC called me last Sunday to be part of their show Have Your Say (previously Talking Point) which I was part of on 4 different occasions last year. You can watch the whole show here. Or if you only want to hear my part you can click on the video link (right hand side) and forward to the 22nd minute and 40th second.

Now, back to blogging:

So!!! Hints have started flying right & left that Syria will be coming in from the cold to reign in Hizbullah. The Syrian president must be expecting the phone to go off the hook by now and the red carpet is probably at the dry cleaner getting ready to be stomped on by Arab and hopefully foreign dignitaries. A front page article about the subject has appeared on the WSJ (of all papers) discussing the issue. Here is an excerpt of the article which was sent to me by Ehsani2 (Thanks Ehsani).

But one of the key players in determining the success of any efforts will be Syrian President Bashar Assad, a diplomatic neophyte, whose decisions in the coming days could either escalate or defuse the crisis that has enveloped his country, neighboring Lebanon and Israel. It is a return to regional pre-eminence for Syria, which under President Assad's late father, Hafez el-Assad, was at the center of power politics in the Mideast for years

President Bush, in remarks unintentionally picked up by a nearby microphone during a lunch meeting Monday with other Group of Eight leaders, named Mr. Assad as a central factor in any ceasefire. He told British Prime Minister Tony Blair that the most important development would be to "get Syria to get Hezbollah to stop doing this shit and then it's over." Mr. Bush also told Mr. Blair he wanted to tell United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan "to get on the phone with Assad and make something happen."

But I doubt things will go through so smoothly and immediate signs are in that direction. Even if the US would consider thawing their relations with Syria (which I doubt) it will come through on very modest means. Option can vary from the return of US ambassador to Damascus or pushing Riyadh and Cairo to bring Damascus back into the Arabic leadership triangle they were part of. But for now at least, time is on Damascus’s side. If the west doesn’t want to play ball they will have to solve this dilemma alone (the Israeli way). This will be counter-productive in the long term. So President Assad will continue to just sit and wait.

Lebanese Requiem

2006-07-15T15:02:00.000+02:00

Could this just be the beginning? There are reports of tanks gathering along Israel’s northern border in what appears to be a preparation for a land invasion. Not to be outdone by Nasrallah in keeping promises. Olmret seems to be on the verge of keeping his promise in “turning the clock 20 years” in Lebanon.

Hizballah and their Syrian allies are walking a very thin and dangerous line right now. They have taken the offensive after more than a year of being on the defensive in Lebanon and the region. Syria has seen its Middle East clout diminish, with its president excluded from what used to be the Saudi-Egyptian-Syrian Arab triangle. While the US and Europe has done well in isolating Syria on the international scene. So, much like an ignored and bullied school child, Syria and HA have come out punching. It so happened to be that they came out punching the biggest and toughest bully on the block. HA and Syria are betting that chaos with super-sized Israeli brutality will force the Americans and their Middle Eastern allies to invite, instead of blaming, both parties back to the discussion table and neutralize their Lebanese and regional foes. Short of an all out war with Israel this option will remain the best possible scenario for both players (especially Syria).

6 years ago the majority of Lebanese public opinion was split on HA between annoying but largely tolerated party to legitimate heroes. Today this view has become more polarized with the majority of civilians despising Nassrallah’s gamble with Lebanese lives for his party’s interest. But his latest adventure has gained him support on the Arabic street and Nassrallah still has enough internal support to take that risk.

There is no doubt that Israel will have to negotiate the soldiers release sooner or later (if they even care about releasing them), but not before utilizing this incident to its full potential. Long gone are the days when Israel would bomb Lebanese infrastructure just to incite hate toward HA in the Lebanese community. I was living in Beirut, when on two different occasions, these types of attacks occurred. But this time it’s different!!! Israel’s is going for the party’s military force head-on in the same manner it deals with Hamas in the Palestinian territories. This is where the real losers of this conflict shine: March 14 and their Arab patrons. Because this situation has shifted the attention and much of the power away from the majority leaders in Beirut which have shown how insignificant their weight can be with their new US ally. This explains the unprecedented blame on HA by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan.

Whatever this new potential war and back-channel bickering might bring. The Lebanese civilians, as always, will pay the highest price for its neighbors quarreling. I just hope that we will never read “Pity the Nation II”.

Breaking news - while writing this post Al Jazeera is reporting that Syrian military positions have been hit, as many have expected. This goes back to a comment i have made on syriacomment which i paste below.

At Friday, July 14, 2006, Innocent_Criminal said...
Just got a weird thought

What if the over-reaction by the israeli's will be followed by an attack on Syria which will require a response from Iran as promised today, which in turn will require a response by the US & Israel to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. could this be the end game?

Addendum: Syrian official deny any attack inside Syrian land. so which one is it???

Why pulling a Gaddaffi just wont work for Syria

2006-05-16T16:02:00.000+02:00

Today and after 26 years Washington has restored full ties with Libya. The thaw between the two countries began in 2003 after Libya unilaterally, and out of the blue, renounced its weapons of mass destruction program, terrorist activities and not to mention buying its way out of the Lockerbie bombing fiasco. As an initial reward Washington restored some political channels by opening a diplomatic office in Libya two years ago. And today Gaddaffi bore the fruits of his 180-degree turn when Washington announced Libya’s removal off of its notorious state sponsors of terror list. Of course this did not happen before major US oil and construction companies secured massive deals in the North African country ;)

But from the get-go, Washington tried to make an example of Libya on how a rogue state can be brought in from the cold if it cooperates with the US. I remember a US envoy to Syria during the first days of the Syrian Accountability Act saying that he would have never guessed that Libya would fair better if he had to choose between the two a year earlier. Washington repeatedly “advised” Damascus to take Gaddaffi’s approach and become a full member of the International community. This of course did not happen. Instead the scrutiny against Syria has intensified exponentially since and Syria has never been so isolated by the west.

So why doesn’t Syria take the Gaddaffi route if the rewards are obviously worth it? Well, the two countries might seem to have much in common (i.e. both governments are authotarian, anti-American and members of the State Departments terrorist list) but there are enough differences between that two that make it unappealing for Syria.

- Libya, a relatively small country (population wise) with high oil reserves, is wealthier than Syria. And in a world with rising China and India the fight for oil between the world’s economic super-powers has reached a cutthroat level. This has enticed the politically powerful US oil companies to lobby for opening up Libya since they have grown sick of European and international firms soaking in the riches of countries like Iran and Libya alone.

- Libya is not at war with, and will not be a threat to, any US ally in the foreseeable future. And since Gaddaffi’s hilarious political suggestions have been snubbed over and over by his Arab counterparts. He has shifted the grace of his influence onto his African brothers. Where his lengthy speeches and comical declarations (I.e. cursing shampoo companies who put eggs in their products when Africans don’t have enough to eat. Even though the shampoos in question only used the same protein. But hey!!! what’s the difference) are not only tolerated but also welcomed when they are accompanied by highly needed cash. So when good ol’ Muammar decided to surrender his nuclear and WMD program it was in his countries best strategic interests since it was unlikely he would ever need them.

- Syria is of course at war (technically at least) and is definitely part of several “struggles” in the toughest neighborhood worldwide. It 's arch enemy Israel not only occupies a piece of its land but is much more powerful than it. The Syrian army bec a me obsolete decades ago ; its only strategic deterrent is its Chemical and Biological missiles. So turning these over, from a military perspective, would be at the very least stupid if not suicidal.

- Lets not overlook the fundamental strategic errors that Syria has committed in the past 3 years. From it’s misreading and support of the Iraqi insurgency. The extension of Lahoud’s presidency, the apparent involvement in the Hariri assassination and even more importantly the dealing with its aftermath. The last of course was instrumental in shifting the Europeans tide on the American side magnifying Syria’s pariah status.

- But more importantly, America’s and Israel’s goal is not to see Syria turn over a new leaf. Because the price to pay for such a gesture is just too high. Israel’s right wing government has rejected even entertaining the thought of negotiating with the Syrians because they want to keep the Golan (Syria’s only major peace demand). Another example is the lack of kudos for Syrian help in deterring an immanent attack on American facilities in Bahrain few months after September 11 and before the Iraqi war or any of the problems in Lebanon. So isolating and weakening Syria has been the US/Israeli strategy from the start, its only thanks to Syria’s mistakes that the process was accelerated.

Excluding the Lebanese issues, the Syrians have tried to appease many of Washington’s demands. From closing (aesthetically at least) the offices of Palestinian factions to tremendously improving its cooperation on the Iraqi border and sending several signals that it was ready to start negotiating with Israel from scratch. But these overtures where not received as warmly as Damascus might have hoped because they were acts in desperate times lacking any regional/international support. And this has sent Damascus a very clear sign that the US is not willing to play nice anytime soon.

IF, and that’s a very big if, Washington had been sincere about its willingness to support an open Syria. They would have waved some carrots in an attempt to lure them to the Libyan route. By setting out clear rewards according to clear demands instead the political garbage about joining the international community that we heard the state department and the DoD regurgitating over and over again. Then Syria might have considered and even heeded such advise.

In summery, I would like to acknowledge Libya’s strategic decision to give in to the west’s demands as the best judgment Gaddaffi has ever made in his political life. The Libyan people have suffered immensely on many levels under the embargo, which their “beloved” leader has been mostly responsible for. But what’s good for one country does not necessarily work for another. Syria’s situation is different than that of Libya because of one and very simple reason. The powers to be do not want to have a peaceful resolution to this particular battle. The Golan will remain in Israeli hands for as long as possible and hey, if Israel runs out of enemies how will it be able to ask for American military & economic support? ;)

Gone on holiday

2006-03-30T10:36:00.000+02:00

I am off to Dubai for a couple of weeks. been quiet sick and busy lately so i haven't been posting (not that anybody is reading anyways). will probably post from there in few days.

No comment

2006-03-16T11:59:00.000+01:00

Just read this, i didn't know whether to laugh or cry

http://www.alarabiya.net/Articles/2006/03/15/21988.htm

Down with...

2006-03-09T12:21:00.000+01:00

If there is one media outlet that poses more harm to the Syrian government and people than any other then it has to be the pathetic excuse of a reporting agency the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA).

While scanning through my daily Google news on Syria I have grown accustomed to the intense “Media Campaign” by SANA, which has increased in the past few months. Now a days I don’t even need to read the source. If the headline reads something like; Syria is Strong and Faithful to Arab Nation, Information Minister ... OR Relations with Syria are Historical, Lebanese MP Says or even Iranian Mu'talifa Party Arrives in Damascus Then rest assured its being published (only) by SANA.

How and why would crap like Arabs Reject Targeting Syria, Sudanese President Advisor Says be your fucking headline? What’s wrong with these morons? This is not an Arabic Syrian daily where toeing the government line blindly is accepted. This is an English media outlet that everyone can read. So why can’t they utilize it to express their point in a semi-intelligent manner instead of wasting digital storage space with this is diarrhea like shit?

Not all Syrian news agencies are that vile, the newly created Cham Press has done a much better job in gathering pro and anti news articles/analysis regarding Syria while continuing to support the government views. And this is the direction SANA needs to move into if it wants to gain a scrap of dignity, become semi-professional instead of appearing as government whore. This way it can become more of an effective tool in the current one-sided media war and help in making the agency and government look more professional and competent.

But since our glorious bureaucracy is notoriously inept I will assume that things will remain the same at SANA. Thus, and on behalf of all Syrians, I say to the editor of SANA that you and your agency are an embarrassment to all of us and I hope you suffer a sever case of constipation that will hinder your work.

I'm soooooooooo hung-over

2006-02-18T12:08:00.000+01:00

i'll come back with a serious post later but all i can say right now is AAAHHH MY FUCKING HEAD

Bayanouni & Khaddam and the 2nd Hamas Card

2006-02-09T15:37:00.000+01:00

With Valentine’s Day fast approaching love is in the air on many fronts. The Muslim Brotherhood have found a new aficionado in Abed el Haleem Khadam the ex Baathist and one of the party’s pillars for decades. This really goes to show you that politics is the dirtiest game in the world and that if you live long enough you’re bound to see some crazy shit. Many analysts might see this move as consolidation and strengthening of the opposition’s line-up. I wouldn’t completely agree; for one what is the MB gaining in having Khaddam in their ranks? He does have the Saudi/Sunni connections and might be more appealing to the west than the fundamentalist banners the MB waves around BUT what else? In the place that matters most => the Syrian streets, Khaddam is a liability and a washed out loser. That last comment applies to both regime supporters and haters for obvious reasons. So in short, zero points in mass-appeal for poor old Khaddam.

To me this alliance highlights the MB’s desperation as well as its newfound pragmatism. It might be the strongest opposition party out there but they still have to compete with many different secular parties that oppose MB dominance. So if the MB held a stronger hand they would not be willing to align themselves with the very image of their oppressors.

On the other hand, Hamas’s latest win must have aroused the MB a great deal. Because if Hamas can succeed in establishing a somewhat normal relationship with the west then what would stop the latter from doing the same thing? But I wouldn’t reach for the condoms and the lubricant just yet. Washington might be willing to deal with a couple of Islamic institutions in the regions but its not about to allow Egypt, Syria, Palestine, Iraq Islamatized all at the same time on top of the existing Islamic governments/parties. And more realistically I don’t think the US or Israel will allow Hamas to become a viable political entity. It might dabble in some time-consuming “talks” but they are not about to lose their much closer, and more willing to concede, partner the PA.

Is that to say that the MB, Khaddam and others are wasting their time? No, there are serious cracks in the Syrian regime and as all opposition members are expected to do, they will try to exploit these cracks and bite for time. I just think they will be biting for a lot longer than they hope or think.

Danish Fulla

2006-02-05T14:00:00.000+01:00

On the request of some commentators (Caveman & Vox) I have changed the background, to make it easier to read. Only after changing it did I notice that its the same one Caveman uses, sorry about that.

I’ve been torn between two topics as the subject for my new post. The Danish Cartoon controversy and the colossal amount of ridicules “news” articles that Al-Arabiya have been posting regularly on their website. So instead I will have one post briefly discussing both.

As for the Cartoon debacle I would like to say… give me a fucking break. While its nice to see the Muslim and Arab world agreeing on something for once. The situation has been taken too far; it’s become a mockery and reached an insulting stage. Why cant we be this united and determined when it comes to matters that are actually of importance? God knows that the Muslim world is rampant with problems and oppressions that are fundamentally more vital than what a dozen of racist pricks in northern Europe decided to jot-down. I am fully in agreement with those who say that if these bastards decided to draw a cartoon making fun of Jews being grilled in some nazi barbeque they would be in jail by now and part of me says “and they would deserve it”. But the reaction has been overblown and in many ways unfair. Denmark, its government, and companies are paying the price for a wrong they did not commit or even support. The best strategy the Muslim world should have taken is the same one a reasonable adult should take with stupid kids…IGNORE.

Two contradicting views in the blogsphere can be found here & here. The first is in support of the Danish boycott, but as said earlier and as mentioned by one of the commentators on Ayman’s blog “However, I can't help wondering bitterly where all those boycotters are when Palestinian schoolgirls are being shot dead, when olive trees are being uprooted, Palestinian farmers attacked by colonisers and a wall/fence erected on Palestinian land. Where are the boycotters? Can't they do something simple and efficient to voice their anger? Why is it that when the prophet Muhammad is insulted they react (which I understand and sympathise with fully) but when children are killed they don't?” While the Palestinian issue is becoming a redundant example, the man still has a point.

The second is Kais’s political charged and driven view on the matter. Not so much regarding the actually dilemma but instead he utilized it as a jab against one of his least favorite politicians. While I agree with his point that there is no need to have another fatwa like the one issued against Rushdie. I still feel the clandestine message sent by some anti-Hizbullah bloggers are disregarding the fact that Nasrallah is not inciting but actually reiterating what’s on the mind of MANY MANY Muslims.

Speaking of what’s on the mind of many Muslims. I’ve just started reading Al-Arabiya’s website (I’m usually reading Al-Jazeera.net). And though I have viewed it as a more “balanced” Arabic TV news channel when compared to others including Al-Jazeera. I have realized that their website is worse than British tabloid. The site is infested with shallow, trivial and petty “news” articles on certain social incidents that mostly occur in the GCC. Check this out as a small example, here & here but what’s more intriguing, disgusting and most of all entertaining is the comment section. Although, the second article rings closer to home for me since I am Syrian and my girlfriend is Saudi, and we had jokingly said that she should break up with me before ending up like that poor “innocent” Kuwaiti girl ;)

But what got my rage fired up was this article about Fulla (the muslim Barbie) a few weeks ago where you can be astonished by the incredible amount of participants for these religiously charged articles. Check out a few quotes of the many posted by complete morons on the issue. What I keep hearing in my head is “these monkeys are YOUR people” makes me have dry heaves.
‎
و الانترنت واهمال الاهالي هذا الايام تحت عنوان حقوق المراة والديمقراطية والتطور" tv "هذابسبب ال

"هذه بشارة خير للامة الاسلامية ... وبداية العودة للامجاد والحضارة الاسلامية... ولكن يجب ان نستمر بهذا الشكل وفي جميع الاتجاهات ...الاغاني ...الافلام ....التعليم ................الخ"

بارك الله فيكم أيها الصينيون. أنا أب لبنتبن في العاشرة والخامسة عشرة من عمرهما. وللأسف لم تكن هناك عروشة محتشمة أقدمها لابنتي الكبري في ذلك الوقت مثل فلة فأحضرت لها باربي، وبعد فترة من الوقت لاحظت أن سلوك ابنتي أصبح منحرفا تأثرا بهذه الدمية الفاجرة، ففي إحدى المرات كانت تقف في الشرفة وهي بالملابس الداخلية متخذة وضعا مثل الباربي، وفي مرة أخرى نزلت لشراء الحلوى من البقال وهي عارية الصدر. كانت ابنتي على وشك الانحراف لولا أنني حطمت هذه الباربي الفاجرة. أما ابنتي الصغرى حماها الله والتي أحضرت لها فلة، فقد أصبح سلوكها قويما منذ تعرفت على فلة، لدرجة أنها أصبحت لا تظهر أمامي إلا وقد غطت وجهها وكفيها بالملابس السوداء المعتمة خوفا على نفسها وعلى أبيها من الفتنة. حمدا لله.

Before I bid you farewell can you please tell me where I can hire assassins to hunt the people who are publishing this garbage?

The Hamas card

2006-01-29T12:36:00.000+01:00

The ripples of Hamas’s recent election shocker has sent a shockwave to the Israeli’s and West but has brought a very welcome breeze to Hamas’s biggest alley outside the Palestinian territories….Syria. With the various pressures that Syria has been under lately, the annulment of one of these pressures comes as a welcome relief to Damascus. The support of Palestinian “terror” groups will become redundant once Hamas creates the next Palestinian government. Because that act will bring Hamas from legitimate obscurity to the very center of validity, whether Washington or Tel Aviv like it or not. And in that case, Damascus’s hosting of “Press Offices” of Hamas will easily be argued as an office of the Palestinian government. Needless to say this will also flow over to the support of Islamic Jihad and others.

But in a sense Hamas’s victory can be a double edge sword for various Arab governments. While Syria will benefit from its long standing support for non-Fateh factions, the Islamists everywhere (including Syria) will try to view this victory as stride toward their ultimate goal. As Josh mentioned on a previous post “Like Mubarak, Asad will be smirking at US discomfiture as Washington sees its desire for democracy fulfilled. But Asad better not smirk too long, for the Hamas win also underscores what will happen to him should real elections be allowed in Syria.”

But in the shortterm at least Assad will be smirking. Because Damascus’s stress levels are beyond dangerous at the moment and any development to release some of this stress, even if it’s for a short while, will be bring more good than bad.

Another question that comes to mind is will Hamas become the next Hizballah for Syria in Palestine? Yes and no. Yes in the sense that Hamas is an ally and has the same vision and philosophy as the Hizb when it comes to dealing with Israel. But Syria does not have the influence or access to Hamas like it has with Hizballah. But if Hamas passes its biggest test yet, and proves its legitimacy and competence in national and much much more importantly INTERNATIONAL politics then Syria will definitely gain a strong hand and in some ways replace it with the one it lost in Lebanon.

Do I hear an echo?

2006-01-24T15:41:00.000+01:00

Helloo, lloo, loo, ooo. Anybody there?

Beloved reader(s),

I know it’s been a while and from what I see in the comment section nobody missed me or gives two shits about it :). I apologize to the one and only person who will be reading this (myself) for not writing but I was busy for the past few months with my mom’s visit, starting a new job, buying a new apartment and moving to Amsterdam, so I am sorry Tarek (OK I forgive you). But most importantly I just haven’t been bothered. Too many of my fellow bloggers have been doing a better job and I lacked the will to write something that can resemble the quality (or lack of) that I have seen online. But I hope things are gonna change from now on. My fat ass has started going to the gym and if I can pull that off (3 times already) then why can’t I do this???

So here it goes

Syria is still in deep shit with no light at the end of the tunnel. My predication is that it will continue like this for the next year and nothing overly dramatic is gonna happen. Instead the strategy of the west will be for Syria to bleed, not necessarily to death, and continue to weaken until a better (worse) alternative can come up. I will repeat what I have said earlier on Syriacomment in which Josh was kind enough to post.

“The one and only option that I see as a way out for the leadership is the option they are likely to take if hell should freeze over, and that is to open up...exponentially!!! By allowing real freedom of speech, press, and seriously pave the road to a true multi-party system.

Syria is steam cooker ready to explode and the government shouldn't just loosen the steam valve but to take the whole lid off. While it's clear that crisis management and pro-activeness is not Damascus's strongest asset, one can only hope that realism is. And at this point of time cutting your losses is the soundest strategy, and losing some of the Ba'ath's influence is a much more pleasant scenario than losing the whole shebang. If they really wanted to (and they DON'T) they can take the lead in the mid-term and chaperon the transition into a political system in which the Ba'ath and Alwaite echelon can still play a pivotal role in Syrian society. They have always excelled in maintaining security in such a hostile region, but they have failed miserably in good governance and that's where other SECULAR and realistic parties can play a role. Opposition parties should not, and don't seem to, kid themselves in thinking that Syria's external weakness will translate into a fatal internal hemorrhage, so dialogue must commence even if they prefer a different leadership.”

I would also add: the opposition has always said that there is no hope of you changing your ways so…PROVE THEM WRONG (hopeful thinking I know)

So what about Lebanon? Well that’s not looking good either, Syrians and Lebanese have very serious and understandable concerns on why they should continue to despise each other. The Syrians need to learn (and they WON’T) that Syrian presence, especially in the last 5 years, was no longer perceived as a positive or even neutral issue. I will disregard the long standing opposition/support for the Syrian influence because in reality both were a minority (considerable but a minority nonetheless) and the bulk have shifted from a apathy to firmly critical only in the last few years. But I would like the Syrians to see it this way, would we have allowed the Iraqi army to be present on our soil for 15 years after the civil war has ended? No I didn’t think so. If we hadn’t been so greedy we could have moved to the Beka’a and camped there for a few extra years. Sometimes you have to give up a little to gain more.

But the Lebanese also need to respect the Syrians even though they are down on their knees (for the moment). They also need to understand that the public, not just the leadership, are holding a grudge. And even if The Monkey’s (AKA Junblat) wettest dream comes true and the regime is changed, the people will never forget and possibly never forgive. So invest in the future of both countries and learn how to compromise, as much as it might hurt. Because, as much as some of you might venomously disagree, the Syrian presence brought the GOOD as well as the BAD. And like it or not Syria will remain Lebanon's closest neighbor.

I believe that the Lebanese need to be the better man so to say, and help the understandably paranoid Damascus with its worries. Especially when it comes to the very feasible possibility that Lebanon will become the breading ground for regime-change parties. Why shouldn't Syria be that better man? well they are getting a beaten and you cant think reasonably when you are being attacked. As for the people who are all for the possibility of regime change via a "revolution" I say you are an idiot and if you know what’s better for your countrymen you’d keep you mouth shut. Some might say it must get worse before it gets better but I will answer by saying “Iraq X 2”. You can call me an apologist or paranoid but we all know it’s a serious possibility. Anyways that’s enough for now, I will come back to correct the many mistakes laterzzz

But on a bright note I will say :

“A little girl is being dragged into the woods in the middle of the night by a dirty old paedophile.'I'm scared.' The girl cries. The man replies 'You’re Scared? You're not the one that has to walk back alone”

Does protest work?

2005-08-12T18:19:00.000+02:00

Two ladies, who took things in to their own hands, in their own special ways, have gained some recognition in the last few days by protesting against the same subject: the Iraq war. Which makes you wonder: how effective is public protest? The First lady is the more famous of the two; Cindy Sheehan has been camping outside President Bush’s home for nearly a week. She is the mother of a US soldier killed just five days after arriving in Iraq. Her tenacious stance has won her some serious attention in the US and has made headline news across the country. So much in fact that DoubleYa, while dodging a meeting with her, was forced to comment on the matter by sharing his “grieve” with the woman (insert vomiting picture here). The second lady is Hala Faisal, originally from Syria, she took a stroll in the Washington Square Park fountain in New York naked!!! Ronda Kaysen's article is what inspired this post. BTW Hala seems to be an ex-Syrian actress and her uncle was jailed, anyone knows more about who that?

There is no doubt that it took a lot of guts for these two women to do what they did/doing. But is it anything more than attracting attention to themselves and their lost cause? If millions of people failed in 2003 why the hell would one bitter mother and one naked middle aged lady (nice body for a 45 years old ;) in fountain make a difference? Should people (especially Americans) need to be reminded of decisions that are affecting human lives? Should one not give-up even though hope has long been gone? I am not speaking from moral high-ground here I assure you. Pacifism is a trait I proudly carry on many topics, but these ladies certainly don’t carry it when it comes to circumstances that affect people’s existence, even when these people live half a globe away.

Obviously public protest has worked on some occasions; Ukraine’s Orange and Georgia’s Rose revolutions are great example of protests producing real results. Whether these results where for the better is open to interpretation especially since corruption is still rampant and democracy is nowhere to be seen in the two countries.

But I leave it to the reader(s) of my very lonely blog to judge, and I look forward to hearing some views on the subject.

Iran seeks closer bonds with Syria against 'foes'

2005-08-10T06:16:00.000+02:00

A day after devirginizing my blog with the opening post below, Michael Young writes this article in the Daily Star on the same subject. Michael’s analysis is certainly thought provoking but he fails to provide alternative solutions to Syria “foolhardiness” in allying with Iran at this delicate period.

It also makes one wonder if Michael sells-out his friends that quickly in real life? Does he chuck them out the window once they are no longer a significant “asset”? Even though I agree with him that Iran is the stronger partner of this relationship, Tehran is still as isolated and needs any ally it can get its hands on. Not to forget Syria’s stance against Saddam will not be easily forgotten by the “moralists” in Tehran.

I understand this is politics but Syria doesn’t seem to have any other option. Damascus tried bending backwards for Washington but the latter does not want to take notice or play fair. So Syria, and rightly so, has given up (temporarily) on playing nice.

Reiterating the American view that Syria needs to do more on the Iraqi border was the lowest point in this article. It was a cheap shot by all means because Young’s cannot be that stupid, and it doesn’t take a genius to know that the border issue is being leveraged by the American’s to continue pressuring Syria rather than it being the motivation for the pressure. Nevertheless the article worth a read.

Original Post:

The alliance between Syria and Iran has always been based on common interests rather than ideology. Syria’s government is secular while Iran continues to be run by conservative Islamic Shi’a clerics. But their common loathe for Saddam Hussein and American bias towards Israel, to their support for Hezbollah and weapon development cooperation. Both countries have relied on each other to avoid marginalization by the powers to be. But 2005 has held and will continue to hold enormous tests to this awkward friendship.

Iran continues to be drilled by the Euro-American “good cop/bad cop” campaign to deter it from developing its nuclear program. Syria on the other hand, and to put it mildly, is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Damascus has been under immense pressure from multiple directions and on different issues; controlling the Iraqi border, its presence in Lebanon, supporting Hezbollah and various Palestinian groups, the continuing conflict with Israel and last but not least being blamed for the assassinations in Lebanon.

Under these circumstances it is not surprising that both countries would search for strategic and possible military allies. Syria’s army is no match when compared to its Israeli counter part or the American military super-machine. Bringing Iran’s significant military force into play would probably make any country including the US think twice. But for Syria to align its self with a member of the “Axis of Evil” and “the world’s primary state sponsor of terror” is a double-edged sword. It can risk alienating itself further and damage its international public image.

But are there are any real alternatives out there? If Syria’s so called Arab “brothers” are either standing passively idle or actually participating in the pressure against Damascus. I guess its like that old saying goes “A friend in need is a friend indeed”