Sunday, January 29, 2006

The Hamas card

The ripples of Hamas’s recent election shocker has sent a shockwave to the Israeli’s and West but has brought a very welcome breeze to Hamas’s biggest alley outside the Palestinian territories….Syria. With the various pressures that Syria has been under lately, the annulment of one of these pressures comes as a welcome relief to Damascus. The support of Palestinian “terror” groups will become redundant once Hamas creates the next Palestinian government. Because that act will bring Hamas from legitimate obscurity to the very center of validity, whether Washington or Tel Aviv like it or not. And in that case, Damascus’s hosting of “Press Offices” of Hamas will easily be argued as an office of the Palestinian government. Needless to say this will also flow over to the support of Islamic Jihad and others.

But in a sense Hamas’s victory can be a double edge sword for various Arab governments. While Syria will benefit from its long standing support for non-Fateh factions, the Islamists everywhere (including Syria) will try to view this victory as stride toward their ultimate goal. As Josh mentioned on a previous post “Like Mubarak, Asad will be smirking at US discomfiture as Washington sees its desire for democracy fulfilled. But Asad better not smirk too long, for the Hamas win also underscores what will happen to him should real elections be allowed in Syria.”

But in the shortterm at least Assad will be smirking. Because Damascus’s stress levels are beyond dangerous at the moment and any development to release some of this stress, even if it’s for a short while, will be bring more good than bad.

Another question that comes to mind is will Hamas become the next Hizballah for Syria in Palestine? Yes and no. Yes in the sense that Hamas is an ally and has the same vision and philosophy as the Hizb when it comes to dealing with Israel. But Syria does not have the influence or access to Hamas like it has with Hizballah. But if Hamas passes its biggest test yet, and proves its legitimacy and competence in national and much much more importantly INTERNATIONAL politics then Syria will definitely gain a strong hand and in some ways replace it with the one it lost in Lebanon.


At February 01, 2006 2:26 am, Blogger zobahhan said...

so syria sold lebanon to buy palestine. sounds good

At February 01, 2006 9:50 am, Blogger Innocent_Criminal said...

i dont think we sold lebanon, it wasn't a choice. i advise you to re-read the post. I also read your blog, i doubt that you are Syria and/or serious. at least i hope not


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